How U.S. Holiday Spending is Set to Break Records

The holiday season in the United States has always been a defining moment for retailers, but Christmas 2025 is shaping up to be historic. According to the latest projections, holiday retail sales are expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever, marking a milestone in consumer spending. This surge reflects the evolving dynamics of how people buy, influenced by digital platforms, inflationary pressures, and shifting consumer preferences.

Record-Breaking Numbers

• The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that U.S. holiday sales in November and December 2025 will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to 2024, reaching between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion.
• E-commerce sales alone are projected to exceed $311 billion, accounting for more than 31% of total holiday spending.
• On average, consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on gifts, food, decorations, and other holiday-related items.

These figures highlight a dual trend: while brick-and-mortar stores remain relevant, digital shopping continues to dominate, especially with mobile devices driving more than half of online purchases.

Consumer Behavior in 2025

Holiday shopping is not just about numbers—it’s about how consumers approach the season. Surveys reveal several key behaviors shaping Christmas 2025:

• Value-driven shopping: With economic uncertainty still lingering, shoppers are prioritizing deals and discounts. Deloitte’s 2025 Holiday Retail Survey shows that consumers are actively seeking promotions and digital conveniences.
• Mobile-first mindset: More than 56% of online holiday sales will come from mobile devices, underscoring the importance of mobile optimization for retailers.
• Experience over excess: Many consumers are balancing material purchases with spending on seasonal experiences, such as travel, dining, and entertainment.

The Rise of E-Commerce

E-commerce has steadily grown over the past decade, but Christmas 2025 marks a turning point. In 2014, online holiday sales were just under $80 billion; by 2025, they are expected to quadruple to over $311 billion. This growth is fueled by:

• Convenience: Shoppers can browse, compare, and purchase from anywhere.
• Personalization: AI-driven recommendations and targeted ads make online shopping more engaging.
• Logistics improvements: Faster shipping and reliable delivery options reduce friction.

Retailers who fail to optimize their digital presence risk losing out on this massive share of holiday spending.

Inflation and Economic Context

While spending is projected to hit record highs, inflation continues to shape consumer decisions. Shoppers are cautious, balancing festive enthusiasm with budget constraints. The NRF notes that despite mixed consumer sentiment, Americans remain fundamentally strong in driving economic activity.

With sales projected to surpass $1 trillion, e-commerce capturing nearly one-third of spending, and consumers averaging nearly $900 each, the season reflects both tradition and transformation. Retailers who embrace digital strategies, prioritize customer experience, and adapt to economic realities will be best positioned to thrive.